ars01
04-20 09:48 AM
Contributed $100 towards the cause
wallpaper Labels: chinese dragon tattoos
meghanap2000
10-30 05:06 PM
You want to know the "experiences" of people on how to take a photocopy ? I believe you got your GC in EB-2 category, so you should be skilled enough to know this.
gootle.....either give answer or shut your both.....
gootle.....either give answer or shut your both.....
axp817
03-31 11:25 AM
USCIS could be making a determination that the 140's company is now revoking were approved iun error and people are not eligible for ac21.
If it is determined that that is indeed why they (USCIS) denied a certain 485, and then the applicant proceeds to hire/seek the help of competent lawyers and accounting professionals (I�m not naming anyone here :)) to file an MTR where the old employer�s ability to pay for that particular employee (from the time of filing the labor until the employee left the old employer/submitted AC21 documents) is demonstrated via the employee's W-2s, do you think the applicant has a chance to get the 485 re-instated?
I'll keep everyone posted of what happens to this case.
Thanks, highly appreciated, as always.
If it is determined that that is indeed why they (USCIS) denied a certain 485, and then the applicant proceeds to hire/seek the help of competent lawyers and accounting professionals (I�m not naming anyone here :)) to file an MTR where the old employer�s ability to pay for that particular employee (from the time of filing the labor until the employee left the old employer/submitted AC21 documents) is demonstrated via the employee's W-2s, do you think the applicant has a chance to get the 485 re-instated?
I'll keep everyone posted of what happens to this case.
Thanks, highly appreciated, as always.
2011 tattoo flash dragon
REEF�
06-22 07:30 PM
:lol:
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Leo07
11-18 05:03 PM
Phani, Thanks for sharing! Th eonly reason for spending 1000 bucks is for such scenarios.
If the insurance doesn't cover these cases then Atlas America is of no use.
Thanks again!
Took Atlas America due to their "acute onset of pre-existing clause". Mom got pneumonia 3 weeks after coming to US in April last year. They declined to cover hospital bills saying it is a pre-existing condition. Doctor's opinion was she acquired it due to cold weather and highly improbable for someone to have it not get sick for 3-4weeks. Insurance did not care. Still paying the bills.
If the insurance doesn't cover these cases then Atlas America is of no use.
Thanks again!
Took Atlas America due to their "acute onset of pre-existing clause". Mom got pneumonia 3 weeks after coming to US in April last year. They declined to cover hospital bills saying it is a pre-existing condition. Doctor's opinion was she acquired it due to cold weather and highly improbable for someone to have it not get sick for 3-4weeks. Insurance did not care. Still paying the bills.
BharatPremi
12-13 03:33 PM
I never have and never will like the idea of being asked to pay, I give what I can unasked. What of the people that by circumstance do currently not have these amounts of money to spare. I should not have to feel excluded nor should I have to explain my very personal reasons why to everyone.
Have you guys looked in the forums lately, people are getting "yelled" at and talked to rudely if they do not disclose how much exactly they have contributed. So we are only allowed to an opinion or help if we have money?
I will contribute when I have money to spare, however it seems I will have to leave this organization based on the comments that have been out there before I get to the point where I can afford to contribute. That goes for both time and money, some of us have responsibilities that we do not want to disclose.
*sigh* I might have just opened myself up to the ones that like to attack....go ahead...
:) Do not worry.
Have you guys looked in the forums lately, people are getting "yelled" at and talked to rudely if they do not disclose how much exactly they have contributed. So we are only allowed to an opinion or help if we have money?
I will contribute when I have money to spare, however it seems I will have to leave this organization based on the comments that have been out there before I get to the point where I can afford to contribute. That goes for both time and money, some of us have responsibilities that we do not want to disclose.
*sigh* I might have just opened myself up to the ones that like to attack....go ahead...
:) Do not worry.
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kshitijnt
06-11 02:50 PM
This can financially drain you out. My insurance agent told me that they cant get the money straight out of your bank account , because how will they find out your bank account number and the bank? How do they know how many bank accounts you have? What if you send money to India before the judgement is entered against you? If you have a house, they can go after your house or car. What about their own insurance policy? Maybe their insurance can also pay as uninsured motorist pay? Retirement income is usually protected in some states and hence I dont think your 401K is at risk. Once your insurance company pays out the maximum, you can basically say hands up, I have given up.
2010 preview of Flash tattoo .
franklin
07-11 02:02 AM
I am not sure if you are being facetious but I think that is a great idea! :)
No, I'm not being facetious :)
There is always a chance that a well publicized (we are working on that part!) rally might attract opposition to the rally.
I wholeheartedly think that this gesture would be seen as fairly "american" and could defuse tension if it arises. Plus it would link back nicely to the flower campaign as well, and the eventual destination of the bouquets sent.
Political stance on wars aside, I don't think there are many people who don't support the lives on the line.
No, I'm not being facetious :)
There is always a chance that a well publicized (we are working on that part!) rally might attract opposition to the rally.
I wholeheartedly think that this gesture would be seen as fairly "american" and could defuse tension if it arises. Plus it would link back nicely to the flower campaign as well, and the eventual destination of the bouquets sent.
Political stance on wars aside, I don't think there are many people who don't support the lives on the line.
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caliguy
09-16 08:12 PM
kubmilegaGC - talked to an IO. She was very rude. I put the details in the other thread - September approvals 2009. Take a look at it.
Yes, I totally agree with you. So far, besides the SR that was opened by my attorney, I have done everything on my own. When I called my attorney a couple days back, he asked me why I was in such a rush..... I would love to see him wait for 13 years for something. Coincidentally, I was told the same thing by the IO this morning...."give it some time, we responded to your inquiry, it will take 60 days. call us after November 15th "".
When will I see light at the end of the tunnel? :mad:
Yes, I totally agree with you. So far, besides the SR that was opened by my attorney, I have done everything on my own. When I called my attorney a couple days back, he asked me why I was in such a rush..... I would love to see him wait for 13 years for something. Coincidentally, I was told the same thing by the IO this morning...."give it some time, we responded to your inquiry, it will take 60 days. call us after November 15th "".
When will I see light at the end of the tunnel? :mad:
hair Japanese Dragon Tattoo Flash
chanduv23
07-02 02:27 PM
Filing the complaint is the easiest thing that I have done in a long time. As I had lots of written evidence so it took me close to 30 minutes to prepare the everything but normally it should take no more than 10 minutes. The DOL, Wage and Hour division, takes care of all the such complaints and the identity of the filer is kept confidential to the fullest extent provided by law.
The Form for instructions for filling the complaint & the form is available at http://www.dol.gov/esa/whd/forms/fts_wh4.htm list of H-1B willful violators is available at http://www.dol.gov/esa/whd/immigration/H1BWillfulViolator.htm and the list of debarred employer's is http://www.dol.gov/esa/whd/immigration/H1BDebarment.htm
When I filed a complaint, I sent the whole package via FedEx. I waited for few weeks to hear from DOL but when nothing happened I went to their office (they are few blocks away from me). I spoke with an investigator (who was very professional and courteous) who told me that even though FedEx shows the package was delivered they cannot locate it. The investigator asked me to resubmit the package which I did the next day. I received a letter from the DOL after 2 weeks saying my complaint has been received; they even assigned me a complaint number which I can use to track the progress of the complaint by calling their office. The DOL combined mine and my coworker's complaint together and assigned both of us the same complaint number; my coworker filed his complaint few days after I had filed mine.
What exactly happens to them?
Are they under a watch list?
Many employers will open up a new company and operate?
Maybe employers are ready to deal with this ????
The Form for instructions for filling the complaint & the form is available at http://www.dol.gov/esa/whd/forms/fts_wh4.htm list of H-1B willful violators is available at http://www.dol.gov/esa/whd/immigration/H1BWillfulViolator.htm and the list of debarred employer's is http://www.dol.gov/esa/whd/immigration/H1BDebarment.htm
When I filed a complaint, I sent the whole package via FedEx. I waited for few weeks to hear from DOL but when nothing happened I went to their office (they are few blocks away from me). I spoke with an investigator (who was very professional and courteous) who told me that even though FedEx shows the package was delivered they cannot locate it. The investigator asked me to resubmit the package which I did the next day. I received a letter from the DOL after 2 weeks saying my complaint has been received; they even assigned me a complaint number which I can use to track the progress of the complaint by calling their office. The DOL combined mine and my coworker's complaint together and assigned both of us the same complaint number; my coworker filed his complaint few days after I had filed mine.
What exactly happens to them?
Are they under a watch list?
Many employers will open up a new company and operate?
Maybe employers are ready to deal with this ????
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PlainSpeak
04-19 08:19 AM
That is one more guy in front of me who is gone from the line enabling me to be closer to the GC dispensing window :D
hot dragon tattoo flash art.
nk2006
09-17 02:11 PM
Thanks for the commentary everyone.
I am kind of curious about onething - why is IV core is not saying anything about current house committee deliberations? - did I miss some posts. I am not trying to criticize or anything but just trying to understand if we are getting excited about something which is destined to fail already (I made all the calls and also personally made 5 others to make calls yesterday). If its a strategy not to discuss too much its fine with me - hope there is still a fair chance for 5882.
I am kind of curious about onething - why is IV core is not saying anything about current house committee deliberations? - did I miss some posts. I am not trying to criticize or anything but just trying to understand if we are getting excited about something which is destined to fail already (I made all the calls and also personally made 5 others to make calls yesterday). If its a strategy not to discuss too much its fine with me - hope there is still a fair chance for 5882.
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house Fantasy Art by Linda
sanju
10-12 12:40 AM
I don't know much about buying house/property in India. Maybe you want to have a close family member keep an eye on your property otherwise a land graber/local gunda in the area may take possession of your property while you are here/away.
But I find some of the discussion in this thread extremely intriguing. There were specific conditions in 1930s, 1960s, 1990s that caused recovery in those times. Leadership & American generation were ready to sacrifice and do hard work. Contrary to the hard work done during those times, large percentage of the current population is indifferent and does not care to know about the current crisis, not knowing the gravity of the situation. Majority of the population was, still is, opposed to $700 billion bailout/rescue not knowing what is going on. The ups and downs in the stock market is just the beginning. Coming year is going to be very tough, specially on folks are in the situation that require them to visit this forum every now and then.
Every great and prosperous nation is just one generation away from losing its greatness. History teaches us that Great nations lost their greatness/cease to exist because the larger populations ignored the times of crisis. Most people say that America has always come out of crisis in the past and just like those times, America will again come out of the current crisis. That's what everybody expect and wants to see happen, as if there will be a miracle and everything will get fixed. Everybody including media/leadership are taking things for granted, as if things will turn around by itself just because things have turned around in the past. But this apathy is very dangerous. Here is why - we can say with fair bit of certainty that Romans must have also said during their time of crisis that things will be fine, they have always gotten fine because we are the Romans, the empire of Gods, or whatever. Likewise, this time around, media/leaders are guided by similar rhetoric. I find this behavior very dangerous. In 1930s/60s/90s there was able leadership and American generations during those times were ready to do their share. It doesn't appear such this time, atleast not right now. Maybe we have sometime to come out of the crisis and things will change in the near future. But without change in the direction, things don't look very good right now.
Rome was not built in one day and it did not perish in one day. If leadership and population continue to ignore the gravity of the crisis, there is only one possible outcome.
The positive aspect this time around is, due to globalization, other nations have stake in American economy and are willing to come to the rescue. Even nations like China and Russia are willing to step-up. This would have been unthinkable in an un-globalized world. But other nations can only do so much. Ultimately, the larger population in America will have to step up, and that includes us, there is no other way. Now G-7 is working together to come up with a comprehensive plan. A lot of people beat down on globalization, but till now it is working as was designed, which is good, and other friendlier/unfriendlier nations are willing to step-up.
Another foreseeable opportunity to fight the current situation is, world energy crisis. America can use the world energy crisis to turn things around, not necessarily subscribing to ideas from businessmen like T Bone Pickens/natural gas to promote their business and blah bhah blah, but something else, which makes America - a leader to solve the energy requirements of over 6 billion people, when estimated 20% of the world population consumes 95% of the world energy.
I don't know if you should buy property in India or if you should buy gold. But in the grand scheme of things, if I were you, I would hang on to the "cash" very close to my chest. Things are really bad, a lot more than what meets the eye or what is apparent.
.
But I find some of the discussion in this thread extremely intriguing. There were specific conditions in 1930s, 1960s, 1990s that caused recovery in those times. Leadership & American generation were ready to sacrifice and do hard work. Contrary to the hard work done during those times, large percentage of the current population is indifferent and does not care to know about the current crisis, not knowing the gravity of the situation. Majority of the population was, still is, opposed to $700 billion bailout/rescue not knowing what is going on. The ups and downs in the stock market is just the beginning. Coming year is going to be very tough, specially on folks are in the situation that require them to visit this forum every now and then.
Every great and prosperous nation is just one generation away from losing its greatness. History teaches us that Great nations lost their greatness/cease to exist because the larger populations ignored the times of crisis. Most people say that America has always come out of crisis in the past and just like those times, America will again come out of the current crisis. That's what everybody expect and wants to see happen, as if there will be a miracle and everything will get fixed. Everybody including media/leadership are taking things for granted, as if things will turn around by itself just because things have turned around in the past. But this apathy is very dangerous. Here is why - we can say with fair bit of certainty that Romans must have also said during their time of crisis that things will be fine, they have always gotten fine because we are the Romans, the empire of Gods, or whatever. Likewise, this time around, media/leaders are guided by similar rhetoric. I find this behavior very dangerous. In 1930s/60s/90s there was able leadership and American generations during those times were ready to do their share. It doesn't appear such this time, atleast not right now. Maybe we have sometime to come out of the crisis and things will change in the near future. But without change in the direction, things don't look very good right now.
Rome was not built in one day and it did not perish in one day. If leadership and population continue to ignore the gravity of the crisis, there is only one possible outcome.
The positive aspect this time around is, due to globalization, other nations have stake in American economy and are willing to come to the rescue. Even nations like China and Russia are willing to step-up. This would have been unthinkable in an un-globalized world. But other nations can only do so much. Ultimately, the larger population in America will have to step up, and that includes us, there is no other way. Now G-7 is working together to come up with a comprehensive plan. A lot of people beat down on globalization, but till now it is working as was designed, which is good, and other friendlier/unfriendlier nations are willing to step-up.
Another foreseeable opportunity to fight the current situation is, world energy crisis. America can use the world energy crisis to turn things around, not necessarily subscribing to ideas from businessmen like T Bone Pickens/natural gas to promote their business and blah bhah blah, but something else, which makes America - a leader to solve the energy requirements of over 6 billion people, when estimated 20% of the world population consumes 95% of the world energy.
I don't know if you should buy property in India or if you should buy gold. But in the grand scheme of things, if I were you, I would hang on to the "cash" very close to my chest. Things are really bad, a lot more than what meets the eye or what is apparent.
.
tattoo Eastern Dragon Tattoo
Alien
02-14 09:45 AM
So is this how you brainstorm ideas at work?
Ideas are just as important as contributions.Your design team at work dont have to write the code as well. If its a bad idea then shoot it down,lets not ask everyone who comes up with an idea to implement it as well. Providing ideas is much better than sitting out there in blissful ignorance not knowing anything about retrogression or IV.
You may wanna read "Six thinking hats" by Edward de bono.He talks about having critical thinking hat(black hat) during brainstorming.Lets have some people with black hats here.
btw I thought anand26 was banned from this forum. I am not too far away from being banned as well. I got a post deleted by the admin already without any notice.
Forgive me for wearing the black hat in recent times and yes I have signed up for recurring contributions.
Oh wait. I get it now. We're probably mistaken in thinking anand26's idea is to improve IV; looks like the idea is to promote "yelling at people" as a way of life.
The plan is to do nothing oneself but make a random to-do list for other people; so we should also respond in the same spirit.
Here are some things you should do, anand26; now do it quickly and report back to this forum by tomorrw:
Eat more broccoli.
Raise money for IV.
Do not use "zapata" in a sentence ever again
See. Anyone can do this. Pretty easy. Thanks Anand26 for sharing this idea.
Ideas are just as important as contributions.Your design team at work dont have to write the code as well. If its a bad idea then shoot it down,lets not ask everyone who comes up with an idea to implement it as well. Providing ideas is much better than sitting out there in blissful ignorance not knowing anything about retrogression or IV.
You may wanna read "Six thinking hats" by Edward de bono.He talks about having critical thinking hat(black hat) during brainstorming.Lets have some people with black hats here.
btw I thought anand26 was banned from this forum. I am not too far away from being banned as well. I got a post deleted by the admin already without any notice.
Forgive me for wearing the black hat in recent times and yes I have signed up for recurring contributions.
Oh wait. I get it now. We're probably mistaken in thinking anand26's idea is to improve IV; looks like the idea is to promote "yelling at people" as a way of life.
The plan is to do nothing oneself but make a random to-do list for other people; so we should also respond in the same spirit.
Here are some things you should do, anand26; now do it quickly and report back to this forum by tomorrw:
Eat more broccoli.
Raise money for IV.
Do not use "zapata" in a sentence ever again
See. Anyone can do this. Pretty easy. Thanks Anand26 for sharing this idea.
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pictures Title: Dragon Tattoo
vsrinir
09-17 12:28 PM
we need to watch.
May be next or next one
You need to have " SABURI" !!!!!
When is our Bill coming for vote
May be next or next one
You need to have " SABURI" !!!!!
When is our Bill coming for vote
dresses Dragon tattoo designs are
ndialani
10-30 12:14 PM
Caliguy,
I will reach out to ombudsman and Napolitano this weekend. Another thing i am going to try is applying AP renewal this weekend, set to expire in november anyway. I would rather loose $305 than keep waiting for some miracle. Thanks for your help. I should be able to find the procedure to file 7001 and the Napolitano address in this thread, correct?
Leoindiano,
For Sending #7001 form.....Just google "cis ombudsman form dhs-7001"
type and print pdf. file and mail it to them. Follow it up via email .
I will reach out to ombudsman and Napolitano this weekend. Another thing i am going to try is applying AP renewal this weekend, set to expire in november anyway. I would rather loose $305 than keep waiting for some miracle. Thanks for your help. I should be able to find the procedure to file 7001 and the Napolitano address in this thread, correct?
Leoindiano,
For Sending #7001 form.....Just google "cis ombudsman form dhs-7001"
type and print pdf. file and mail it to them. Follow it up via email .
more...
makeup dragon tattoo flash art.
chaanakya
08-13 11:05 PM
I feel education should be rewarded (Every where). High skilled should get prefference.
chaanakya may be you should consider putting your words in soft intangiable worlds...
For those who care to read...the fact that I am suggesting that people should port their priority dates before that door closes shows that I believe that people who have played by the rules (ie actually put in the 5 yrs experience or find a job with EB2 requirements) should get preference !!
I call this the plight of EB2 india because as the rules are set up, in theory, if majority of EB3 ported priority dates, then yes, EB2 with later dates would truly get the short end of the stick.
Having said that, the backlash against people like SunnySurya is unfair. From his perspective, he is right and the law grants him the right to sue if he feels so.
THe problem in these forums is that any mature discussion is not possible because any dissenting voice is soon suppressed with ad hominem attacks such as the gentlemen who wanted to buy me tickets to india.
Seriously, how much more immature can we get?
Even reading this discussion, NOT ONE PERSON has attacked the argument on a legal basis. INsults are aplenty though.
chaanakya may be you should consider putting your words in soft intangiable worlds...
For those who care to read...the fact that I am suggesting that people should port their priority dates before that door closes shows that I believe that people who have played by the rules (ie actually put in the 5 yrs experience or find a job with EB2 requirements) should get preference !!
I call this the plight of EB2 india because as the rules are set up, in theory, if majority of EB3 ported priority dates, then yes, EB2 with later dates would truly get the short end of the stick.
Having said that, the backlash against people like SunnySurya is unfair. From his perspective, he is right and the law grants him the right to sue if he feels so.
THe problem in these forums is that any mature discussion is not possible because any dissenting voice is soon suppressed with ad hominem attacks such as the gentlemen who wanted to buy me tickets to india.
Seriously, how much more immature can we get?
Even reading this discussion, NOT ONE PERSON has attacked the argument on a legal basis. INsults are aplenty though.
girlfriend dragon tattoo flash art.
GC08
02-04 05:23 PM
I suppose it is a good thing to stop this practice, which seems to be abused a lot. Hopefully, it will put everything in order and people will be treated fairly. :D
hairstyles my red dragon tattoo which was
Brightsider
07-24 11:48 AM
Having seen numerous threads in which the exchanges became rude/sarcastic/rude or even outright abusive and vulgar, I was hoping that this would not become one.
Ron, while you may have a point in what you say, sarcasm and taunts will get you no where. As you said, the 'antis' are gearing up, suggesting (I presume) that the effort of all of us should be more concerted and determined. But you are not doing yourself any favor by saying the things that you do.
Raji had a point of view, and has not been rude or offensive in expressing it. In fact, her/his first post was out why it is not good to use the AILA template. Well, PASKAL did try to address. Raji's tone or tenor of posts did not merit a peremptory reply, much less a rude one.
Be that as it may, I do believe fervently that even if someone insists/demands an answer, you can always ignore it instead of being rude or aggressive.
That way there will be more people on IV'S side.
Ron, while you may have a point in what you say, sarcasm and taunts will get you no where. As you said, the 'antis' are gearing up, suggesting (I presume) that the effort of all of us should be more concerted and determined. But you are not doing yourself any favor by saying the things that you do.
Raji had a point of view, and has not been rude or offensive in expressing it. In fact, her/his first post was out why it is not good to use the AILA template. Well, PASKAL did try to address. Raji's tone or tenor of posts did not merit a peremptory reply, much less a rude one.
Be that as it may, I do believe fervently that even if someone insists/demands an answer, you can always ignore it instead of being rude or aggressive.
That way there will be more people on IV'S side.
DesiGuy
09-17 12:37 PM
seems like the chairman is kinda careless just saying "the ayes have it". He must be a megatron fan.
LOL :)
LOL :)
smisachu
07-30 11:47 AM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is “delta” units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the “Alpha”. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is “delta” units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the “Alpha”. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
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